# Read in file from the second midterm
download.file(url = "https://goo.gl/ZRCBda",
destfile = "master.zip",
quiet = TRUE,
mode = "wb")
# Unzip
unzip("master.zip")
# Create two dataframes: one for polling data (Upshot), the other with results data (Piazza)
piazza <- read_csv('mt_2_results.csv')
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## state = col_character(),
## district = col_character(),
## win_name = col_character(),
## win_party = col_character(),
## dem_votes = col_number(),
## rep_votes = col_number(),
## other_votes = col_number()
## )
# Loading in the results data in a similar fashion to what was done on the midterm:
# As we did in class, the first thing to do here would be to create a vector with all the file names contained in the 2018-live-poll-results-master/data file.
file_names <- dir_ls("2018-live-poll-results-master/data/")
# Also from class: reading in the files into one big tibble.
all_data <- map_dfr(file_names, read_csv, .id = "source")
## Parsed with column specification:
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## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
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## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
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## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
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## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
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## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
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## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
## )
## See spec(...) for full column specifications.
## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character(),
## turnout_scale = col_double(),
## turnout_score = col_double(),
## w_LV = col_double(),
## w_RV = col_double(),
## final_weight = col_double()
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# Also from midterm: making a column for states and type of race
# Creating new variables: First step is to break apart the dashes into separate columns.
all_data <- all_data %>%
separate(source, into = paste("V", 1:11, sep = "-"))
# Cleaning column names (yes, I read chapter 2 from the Tidyverse Style Guide)
all_data <- all_data %>%
clean_names()
# The new data table created a bunch of new columns labeled v_1, v_2, ..., v_11. In here, the column labeled v_9 tells us the both the state and whether the race being polled was a Senate race or a House race. If it was a Senate race, the variable contained "sen"; else, it contained the number of the district being polled.
# First step: creating a new variable "state" that simply substrings the first two letters of V9
for(i in 1:nrow(all_data)){
all_data$state[i] = (substr(all_data$v_9[[i]], 1, 2))
}
## Warning: Unknown or uninitialised column: 'state'.
# Second step: creating a new variable "type_of_race" that returns the district number if it was a House race, or "sen" if it was the senate race.
for(i in 1:nrow(all_data)){
all_data$type_of_race[i] = substr(all_data$v_9[[i]], 3, nchar(all_data$v_9[[i]]))
}
## Warning: Unknown or uninitialised column: 'type_of_race'.
# Making each state uppercase
all_data$state = str_to_upper(all_data$state)
Looking at the relationship between polling error and type of question:
First: tabulating the predicted margins from the last wave of the Upshot polls
# First question I want to focus on: NAFTA
nafta <- all_data %>%
filter(!is.na(nafta)) %>%
select(v_9, nafta) %>%
group_by(v_9) %>%
count(nafta) %>%
spread(nafta, n) %>%
mutate(nafta = 100 * Support / (Support + Oppose + `Don't know`)) %>%
select(v_9, nafta)
# Races for which this question as asked:
unique(nafta$v_9)
## [1] "ca49" "ia01" "ks03" "nj07" "pa07" "tx32"
# Second question: tariff
tariff <- all_data %>%
filter(!is.na(tariff)) %>%
select(v_9, tariff) %>%
group_by(v_9) %>%
count(tariff) %>%
spread(tariff, n) %>%
mutate(tariff = 100 * Support / (Support + Oppose + `Don't know`)) %>%
select(v_9, tariff)
# Races for which this question as asked:
unique(tariff$v_9)
## [1] "ca49" "ia01" "ks03" "nj07" "pa07" "tx32"
# Third question: taxreform
taxreform <- all_data %>%
filter(!is.na(taxreform)) %>%
select(v_9, taxreform) %>%
group_by(v_9) %>%
count(taxreform) %>%
spread(taxreform, n) %>%
mutate(taxreform = 100 * Support / (Support + Oppose + `Don't know`)) %>%
select(v_9, taxreform)
# Races for which this question as asked:
unique(taxreform$v_9)
## [1] "ca49" "ia01" "ks03" "nj07" "pa07" "tx32"
# Fourth question: trumpecon
trumpecon <- all_data %>%
filter(!is.na(trumpecon)) %>%
select(v_9, trumpecon) %>%
group_by(v_9) %>%
count(trumpecon) %>%
spread(trumpecon, n) %>%
mutate(trumpecon = 100 * agree / (agree + disagree + `Don't know`)) %>%
select(v_9, trumpecon)
# Races for which this question as asked:
unique(trumpecon$v_9)
## [1] "ca49" "ia01" "ks03" "nj07" "pa07" "tx32"
# Fifth question: singlepay
singlepay <- all_data %>%
filter(!is.na(singlepay)) %>%
select(v_9, singlepay) %>%
group_by(v_9) %>%
count(singlepay) %>%
spread(singlepay, n) %>%
mutate(singlepay = 100 * Support / (Support + Oppose + `Don't know`)) %>%
select(v_9, singlepay)
# Races for which this question as asked:
unique(singlepay$v_9)
## [1] "ca45" "mi08" "ne02" "nj03" "wa08"
# Making a table with five columns: "Polling Advantage (Dems)", "Results Advantage (Dems)", and the five questions above
# Step 1: calculating Democratic Advantage
all_data1 <- all_data %>%
group_by(v_9, response) %>%
filter(likely != "[DO NOT READ] Don\'t know/Refused") %>%
tally(wt = final_weight) %>%
spread(response, n) %>%
clean_names()
# Making NA values 0
all_data1[is.na(all_data1)] <- 0
# Calculating dem advantage (polls)
all_data1 <- all_data1 %>%
mutate('dem_poll_advantage' = dem / (dem + rep + und + x3 + x4 + x5 + x6))
all_data1 <- all_data1 %>% select('v_9', 'dem_poll_advantage')
# Next step: calculating dem advantage (results)
piazza1 <- piazza %>%
# First step is to paste the "state" and "district" so I could get a list of all the races in a manner that matches the format of the first dataframe.
mutate(v_9 = paste(str_to_lower(state), district, sep='')) %>%
# Next step: calculate dem advantage
mutate('dem_results_advantage' = dem_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes + other_votes)) %>%
select(v_9, dem_results_advantage)
# Join the two tables and drop if v_9 contains "sen" (only trying to look at house races) and calculating error (in percent):
merged <- left_join(all_data1, piazza1, "v_9") %>%
filter(!str_detect(v_9, "sen")) %>%
mutate(error = 100 * (dem_results_advantage - dem_poll_advantage))
# Final step: joining "merged" with question results
merged_thing <- merged %>%
select(v_9, error) %>%
left_join(nafta, 'v_9') %>%
left_join(tariff, 'v_9') %>%
left_join(taxreform, 'v_9') %>%
left_join(trumpecon, 'v_9') %>%
left_join(singlepay, 'v_9') %>%
filter(!is.na(singlepay) | !is.na(nafta))
merged_thing %>%
select(v_9, error, nafta) %>%
mutate('newname' = paste(str_to_upper(substr(v_9, 1, 2)), "-", substr(v_9, 3, 4), sep='')) %>%
filter(!is.na(nafta)) %>%
plot_ly(x = ~nafta, y = ~error,
text = ~newname,
color = ~newname) %>%
layout(xaxis = list(title = '% Support/Agree with Statement'), yaxis = list(title = 'Error in predicting Democratic Advantage'))
## No trace type specified:
## Based on info supplied, a 'scatter' trace seems appropriate.
## Read more about this trace type -> https://plot.ly/r/reference/#scatter
## No scatter mode specifed:
## Setting the mode to markers
## Read more about this attribute -> https://plot.ly/r/reference/#scatter-mode